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6.12.19 - HyperInflation's 100-Year Return

Gold last traded at $1,336 an ounce. Silver at $14.75 an ounce.

NEWS SUMMARY: Precious metal prices rose Wednesday on safe-haven buying and a flat dollar. U.S. stocks fell for a second day as Wall Street investors paused following tech sector weakness.

Put Your Trust in Gold -Forbes
"Americans' trust in institutions, from the federal government to banks to the news media, has been deteriorating for decades. Sixty years ago, three quarters of Americans expressed faith in the government to do the right thing 'most of the time' or 'just about always.' Today, only one in five people, a near-record low, believes our leaders make decisions in the country's best interest. The news media fares just as poorly. A new survey finds that Americans believe 'fake news' is a bigger problem right now than violent crime, illegal immigration and terrorism....So where can you still put your trust in today's often cynical world? Friends and family. Our churches and other religious organizations. Our jobs. As an investor, I continue to have great faith in gold as a store of value during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. It's behaved precisely as I expect it to. In response to heightened global trade concerns and weakening economic indicators, investors have piled into the yellow metal, pushing its price up for a remarkable eight straight days as of last Friday. We haven't seen such a winning streak since June 2014, when gold traded up for 10 straight days....As I've explained elsewhere, tariffs are essentially taxes and, as such, they're inflationary. This has historically supported the price of gold. Besides Walmart and Costco, a number of other retailers have been telling customers and investors that prices will be going up thanks to the Chinese tariff."

hyperinflation HyperInflation's Ominous 100-Year Return -Craig R. Smith/Swiss America
"2019 marks the 100th birthday of the Weimar Republic taking over post-World War I Germany. Weimar, dominated by the socialist Social Democratic Party (SPD), was a sharp left turn in German politics. We face the same today in the United States, where socialists recently seized control of the Democratic Party. Our future elections will be Russian roulette, a choice between pro- and anti-capitalist parties. Weimar debased German culture. Traditional conservative morality and ethics were replaced by decadence. Hard-working thrifty people lost everything, while speculators and borrowers got rich by repaying debts with worthless money....Weimar was a government that paid its bills by printing limitless paper fiat money out of thin air. This at first created the illusion of prosperity, fake wealth intoxication....The U.S. Dollar was worth 4.2 German Marks when WWI began, but by 1923 it took 4.2 Trillion Marks to buy a single dollar. In 1913, total currency in Germany was just 6 Billion Marks; in November 1923...a kilogram of butter almost 6,000 Billion Marks....In 1914, Germany ended its gold standard that restricted government spending so that it could fund with credit a war it expected to win in weeks. World War I lasted five years, dragging Deutschland deep into debt. Germany lost and was forced also to pay crushing reparations that continued until 2010. In late December, 1913, the United States launched the Federal Reserve, purportedly to defend the dollar's value but actually to create an 'elastic currency' with which spendaholic Progressive politicians could cheaply expand government....Today the paper fiat dollar is worth less than two pennies of the 1913 gold-backed dollar. Reckless spending has put the U.S. in a hole of total debt - more than $1.5 Quadrillion Dollars - that can never be honestly paid, but only 'monetized' by printing endless paper fiat dollars that will hit a tipping point of untrustworthiness and suddenly trigger hyperinflation like Weimar's. Many of the socialist Democratic Party's leading 2020 presidential candidates are promising new giveaways that will cost more than $100 Trillion....Weimar hyperinflation's rebirth will soon come to America. Your family can escape it by converting a share of your paper dollars, and assets denominated in dollars such as stocks and bonds, into something that has been a reliable store of value for thousands of years - gold."

Morgan Stanley bear warns his bleak scenario for 2019 is taking shape -Marketwatch
"Last week, tariffs on Mexico increased the chances that the Fed would cut rates. Investors obviously like that. So, stocks rallied. This week, Trump backs off those same tariffs. Investors apparently like that, too. Stocks again are rallying. Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management, please explain. 'The market wanted to go up. I don't think it mattered what happened. We just use these things as a reason after the fact to look smart,' the CEO of the New York City-based investment advisory firm wrote. 'That's how it works. It's not meant to be intellectually satisfying. It's meant to take money away from people who think they can explain things.'....Mike Wilson - hailed across Finance Twitter as 'Wall Street's most bearish analyst' - says there's one big risk out there for investors...'The macro and micro economic data continue to deteriorate,' Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer wrote, pointing to weak durable goods orders, disappointing capital spending, soggy retail earnings, lackluster freight shipments, and a 'very soft' jobs number as evidence of an economy running on fumes....Don't be so quick to blame U.S.-China trade tensions, either, he said. 'The economy was already slowing and escalation potentially makes things worse.' And if you're waiting for a lower interest rates to ignite a rally... don't. 'A rate cut after a long hiking cycle tends to be negative for stocks, in contrast to a pause like in January, which is typically positive,' Wilson said....Wilson's team is looking for GDP to hit the skids in the second half. 'If you listen to what the markets have really been saying this year, they seem to agree with our view that growth will disappoint whether there is a trade deal or not,' he said."

Americans view fake news as a bigger problem than terrorism -Axios
"Americans view made-up news and information as a bigger problem than other critical issues, including terrorism, immigration, climate change and racism, according to a new survey from Pew Research Center. Why it matters: The survey finds that Americans feel more worried today about fake news because it's undermining their trust in key institutions, like government and the media. The only issues that rank higher than made-up news and information as 'very big problems in the country today' are drug addiction, the affordability of health care, the U.S. political system, and the income gap. An overwhelming majority of Americans (68%) believe made-up news and information has a big impact on their trust in government, according to the survey....The big picture: Misinformation has always existed in various forms, but the internet era has made the problem harder to stop in real-time....What's next: Don't count on the public to be optimistic about the issue ahead of 2020. A majority of those surveyed said they think the problem will get worse over time."

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